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 February 1, 2007 HD DVD and Blu-ray: The War that May Never End, or Maybe Hasn’t Begun At CES last month in Las Vegas, I hoped to get a sense of which current "hard" high-definition format -- HD DVD or Blu-ray -- would be the winner in the marketplace. After all, this supposed "format war" has been talked about for some time now, and both sides currently have hardware and software available. However, as I walked the aisles at CES visiting the major players, I concluded that either the battle’s far from over or perhaps hasn’t even begun. Yes, Sony finally has a Blu-ray player out (Samsung was the first, even though Sony invented the format), and Toshiba is into its second generation of HD DVD machines, but the pickings of players are still slim, and the prices are pretty high. In contrast, the number of new and exciting high-definition displays introduced was astonishing, and their prices are quite low. Shouldn’t the players follow suit? Obviously not, likely because nobody seems to know exactly what to do, and few want to pick sides and end up on the losing end. That’s why I suspect the safe money is staying in the middle, at least when it comes to HD DVD and Blu-ray. For example, Korea’s LG showed the world’s first HD DVD/Blu-ray-compatible disc player -- that’s right, it’ll play both. LG is saying it’ll be available this month and will cost $1199. A little expensive, sure, but if other manufacturers follow this lead and produce their own universal high-def players, that’ll drive the prices of those players down, and it’s plausible that any HD DVD/Blu-ray showdown could become a moot point. Consumers might opt for both formats, at least for the time being. After all, it’s not the players driving the market but the displays, and consumers don’t seem to care how their content gets there anymore. Quite simply, hard formats don’t matter like they use to. Furthermore, HD DVD and Blu-ray are considered "interim formats" until the next big thing -- downloading -- comes along. Is it any wonder, then, that there’s no clear winner in the HD DVD/Blu-ray format war when no format is around the corner? Currently, though, fast, easy high-def downloading of video content isn’t practical, so most agree that some hard high-def format is necessary for the time being. That’s where HD DVD and Blu-ray still fit in. But with no clear answers from the CES exhibitors as to which format will reign supreme, I headed over to the AVN Adult Entertainment Expo, which is held at the Sands Convention Center and overlaps with CES’s activities. I wanted to see what that industry's take on the whole thing was. Making adult films is a multi-billion-dollar business that has shown a voracious appetite for new technology. Also, often due to the size of its market, the adult industry acts as a barometer for how new technologies will do in the broader consumer marketplace. So, as I’ve done in the previous two years, I sat down with Joone -- that's his full name -- founder and CEO of Digital Playground. Joone keeps himself abreast of developing technologies, and as a result Digital Playground seems always to be on the cutting edge. In fact, Digital Playground has been waiting for high-def for some time; Joone committed the company to shooting all content in high-definition video starting more than five years ago, even though most of it would just go to standard-definition DVD at the time. Today, Digital Playground is at the forefront of adult high-definition content; however, my interview with Joone this year had a few surprises and, again, no sign of which high-def format would eventually dominate the marketplace. During our discussion last year, Joone indicated that he would back whichever format consumers chose, but he was really hoping Blu-ray would win out, mostly due to the increased storage space (Blu-ray’s capacity is 25 gigs versus 15 for HD DVD). Since then, however, Digital Playground was forced to make an unexpected choice and go solely with HD DVD. According to Joone, his company couldn’t get Blu-ray-based content to market because the companies licensed to manufacture Blu-ray discs can’t produce adult content. As a result, Digital Playground’s four newest high-def releases, which are shipping now, are only available on HD DVD. Obviously, sending the adult industry in one direction could have implications for which format becomes more popular with consumers. The adult market is enormous, and if content is available in one format exclusively, then that could steer people's decisions if their players can only handle one type of disc. According to Joone, there was no adult content available on Beta, either. And you remember what happened to Beta, don’t you? Yet another blunder by Sony? But, even though Digital Playground is forced to choose sides right now, they won’t shut the doors on Blu-ray. It is, after all, the format they’d like to support. Digital Playground prides itself on packing its releases with an abundance of "extras," and this is where the additional space would be welcome. Therefore, Joone told me that in the future his company will monitor the direction both formats take. If there’s a market for Blu-ray and Digital Playground can produce content on it, he’ll certainly look to deliver Blue-ray discs as well. So, while Digital Playground is on the HD DVD bandwagon now, in reality the company is still firmly rooted in the center, which seems the most sensible approach. After all, it’s the content consumers want these days; they’re no longer married to the idea of some physical format. Furthermore, Digital Playground is looking beyond that to that next big thing -- downloading, which they’ve already started to offer. However, offering the full content of their DVDs and HD DVDs for download is still not practical. So, while there’s been tremendous debate about who will win the format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD, the real debate might be whether there really is one anymore. If a war exists, I think that both sides should concede that it’s quite possible neither format is going win and no real good will come from making consumers choose between two formats. The best option to all seems to be something in the center. After all, the new crop of universal players might be just what the industry needs to save what’s likely to be the last two "hard" video formats we’ll ever see. The biggest threat to both of them is not each other, but a future that will see no video formats at all. ...Doug Schneider
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